Adobe Acquired PhoneGap Maker Nitobi

No doubt Adobe is making all out efforts to regain its position for flashy apps on web as well as on mobile. Adobe acquired Nitobi, the maker of multi-platform Apps development opensource, PhoneGap. We are using it in myBantu Apps. It pretty good for providing portable App for Android as well as iPhone. It provides an abstraction to call native services and gives a very good experience as Native App without writing it natively.

It is also an validation of HTML5 . When iPhone was announced, Steve Job declared war on Adobe flash by not supporting it and promoting HTML5 instead. Whether it has compelled Adobe or Adobe is seeing the writing on the wall, but Adobe is rapidly positioning its toolsets to provide a leadership in tools for HTML5 based apps.

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Steve Jobs Billions Dollars Gift to Apps Developers

A latest report on Mobile Market by Ovum Research http://www.itproportal.com/2011/09/08/market-analyst-firm-ovum-predicts-android-outperform-apple-ios-number-app-downloads/  informs that there would be   apps downloads this year itself. Though many of the downloads are free, the paid / freemium Apps download adding direct wealth of collectively billions of dollars in the pockets of Apps Developers. Of course, this number is bigger if you add Advertisement revenue or Apps triggering transaction revenue. The direct download market would reach to  $3.7 billion in 2011, growing 92 per cent over last year .  Though the Android share in the total downloads is higher, the iPhone consumers are paying more with projected $2.86 billion in 2016, compared to $1.5 billion for Android. Credit goes to Steve Jobs and Apple for creating such a huge market opportunity. Consider it is a gift of a one geek to the geeks community!

Harry Potter magic in action : Smoothly transform an image into a video

[tweetmeme source=”khanderao” only_single=false]

Do you want to get experience of Harry Potter movie? Aurasma from Autonomy has something to show..

Thanks to Larry Magid for bringing this cool app to our notice via Huff post.

While it looks cool, it is not a great tech evolution in my mind. It is an innovative combination of image matching and user driven correlation of images to videos. One can tag an image and link to a video and , then any one pointing to the same image can see the magic transforming the image into the corresponding video. I am yet to have access of this to evaluate further and comment with a proper knowledge. The next step in this innovation would be if there is an automatic correlation of image to video. It would require an image to be matched with any / some video frames and then correlated without a need of tagging user.

However, even without this automatic correlation of an image to a video, the app is still a good application, especially in today’s Web2.0 world, there is an upsurge in crowd contribution in content. WikiPedia, various review sites, rating sites etc. depend on the average web user becoming a content contributor. So, if a large number of users do this tagging, this Application can find a great success. And today’s world of virality, if it catches the crowd imagination, we should see a great success story. And I would have my own contribution to it by triggering some virality via this blog entry 🙂

What could be the rational behind Apple’s selection of these 9 countries to release iPad?

As you may already know that  Apple announced that iPad will be available outside USA in 9 additional countries from this Friday.

Austria, Belgium, Hong Kong, Ireland, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand and Singapore

These countries are in addition to Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, the UK and the US. This previous is obvious. It included mostly developed markets.

However, in the second list merging economies like India, China, Brazil, etc. are missing. so I wonder what is the logic behind selecting these countries. The list is missing countries from South America, Mid-east, south-asia, Russia, China, etc.

What could have been the selection criteria?

Is it the market size? then why Luxembourg and Austria?

Is it availability of 3G networks?

Is it depending on a favorable partnership with local wireless providers?

is it based on availability of paid apps that may be used in those market and thus would increase the long tail revenue to Apple?

What could be the rational behind Apple’s selection of  these 9 countries to release iPad?

I would like to hear.

iPhone Apps business model

In a recent article on Fool.com, there was an interesting assessment of iPhone Apps business model. From Apple’s recent announcement of handing over 1Billion to Apps Developers, approximately 225,000 apps developers may get cumulative $1.4B making about 6.3K per app. With the average development cost anywhere between 15K to 35K+additional maintenance+infrastructure, the break-even point would be from 3-10years for an average app.

However, IMO the article does not cover few aspects:

1. Many of the Apps are developed with lower costs and may be by a part-time development. Such app’d developers did not have any opportunity earlier to earn any money from their creativity.

2. There will be a big push towards mobile ads and that needs to be counted.

3. Few apps may have transaction model and may get commission from partners.

4. (2) and (3) is about a long tail for revenue generation.

4. The Article expects a linear scale but it reality if iPhone usage explodes exponentially then there is a huge potential.

5. The law of average does not validate the model. The Apps are either successful or they attract very low traction. In such case, the successful apps break-even quickly and others never. hence this average break-even formula does not make sense.

Khanderao’s Prediction About Emerging Technologies in 2010

In Jan 2010 I had made some predictions that need to be reviewed.

1. Online Killer Social App: A new application will emege that will integrate induviduals online and offline worlds to provide social single-window service experience.

2. Explosion of adaption  of Smart phones iPhone, Androids etc for all purpose needs like information(news, blogs), entertainment(music, movies, videos), games, personal management(health, wealth, life), online quick helps, and most importantly to do mobile transactions. The marketing world would start chasing the mobile world resulting into a flood of mobile ads. This has already began with Google buying AdMob and Apple buying Quattro. The wireless vendors like ATT, Verizon would now jump in the acquisition frenzy.

3. eRaders and Netbooks: Though eReaders like Kindle, Nook and ‘rumoured’ iSlate/iTablet would signigicantly get adapted, the functionality would also start appearing in Netbooks and Smartphones thus in the long term exclusive eReaders would get squeezed. Intel’s new N450 processor based Netbooks would be cheaper and powerful. The Netbooks coupled with online-storage would bridge the digital devides and would be popular from youths to retireees.

4. Special Purpose Devices/Home Computing: Special purpose devices based on Chrome, or even Android would start emerging for home computing. The home devices like TV, players are already internet enabled. Recently 3D TV launched. Similarly game boxes like Wii are WIFI already enabled.  This internet / WIFI connectivity would enable remote control, remote monitoring, enabling internet content as well as communication to all these devices. However, much unfulfilled home computing would start taking shape in the next few years.

5. Cloud computing would be widely adapted and a lot of acquisitions and consolidation would happen. In addition to Google, AWS, Microsoft, new entries would be from other vendors (who knows Oracle/IBM/HP/Dell). However, most importantly the adaption would move from cloud computing for enterprises to personal cloud computing.

5. Twitter would start monetizing based on ads as well as analytical apis. Its growth will be slowed till Twitter based applications get launched. Twitter itself would face a hostile acquisition challenge.

6. Facebook and LinkedIn would be public. Facebook would be the most successful IPO a long time after Google (and that would start worrying Google). Facebook connect would be widely used for authentications in many other online applications, much beyond Facebook itself.

7. Searches: Microsoft would continue to enrich Bing with more acquisitions. Google and Microsoft fight for real-time searches. Image and video search would be enriched.

8. Apple: It is already well-known fact that Apple would expand iTunes from music domiance to movies, books. It would be pressured to get out of exclusive binding with ATT.

9.VOIP, Skype: There will be a wide-spread adoption of VOIP. VOIP + Mobile phones would put the  wired telephony on its deathbed. The Skype based applications and video phones would be popular on iTouch, NetBooks etc.

10. Online Profiling and Privacy: Social networking based online profiling applications would raise privacy concerns. Cyber crimes like identity threats, stalking, frauds, etc. based on the online informations would raise privacy concerns and there would be some rumblings in the legislative world.