Facts Check of my predictions of Emerging Technologies in 2010

Last January  I posted my predictions about 2010. It is time to check the facts.

Prediction 1. Online Killer Social App: A new application will emege that will integrate induviduals online and offline worlds to provide social single-window service experience.

[ Analysis: Carried Forward in 2011] Many social apps got launched this year but none came closer to the social single-window service experience. Of course, the Facebook became the platform social experience, and moving rapidly towards becoming the single window to the online world. However, Facebook itself is not the killer app that integrated both online and off-line worlds, may be apps hosted on it, can fill the gap in 2011.

2. Explosion of adaption  of Smart phones iPhone, Androids etc for all purpose needs like information(news, blogs), entertainment(music, movies, videos), games, personal management(health, wealth, life), online quick helps, and most importantly to do mobile transactions. The marketing world would start chasing the mobile world resulting into a flood of mobile ads. This has already began with Google buying AdMob and Apple buying Quattro. The wireless vendors like ATT, Verizon would now jump in the acquisition frenzy.

[Analysis: True] Armed with more than 150,000 apps, the iPhone users use their iPhone for all possible things.  Ads on mobile apps are increasing in  a rapid space but they are yet to cross the threshold of irritation.

3. eRaders and Netbooks: Though eReaders like Kindle, Nook and ‘rumoured’ iSlate/iTablet would signigicantly get adapted, the functionality would also start appearing in Netbooks and Smartphones thus in the long term exclusive eReaders would get squeezed. Intel’s new N450 processor based Netbooks would be cheaper and powerful. The Netbooks coupled with online-storage would bridge the digital devides and would be popular from youths to retireees.

[Analysis: Almost] Many eReaders got launched however iTablet/iSlate came as iPad and became the history shatterer with record sells. iPad gave a generation of tablets on Android platform too. HP, Dell etc announced their tablets. As predicted Google announced its table computing environment, called Honeycomb,blast week.However, many hardware and mobile manufacturers have already launched their tablets.

4. Special Purpose Devices/Home Computing: Special purpose devices based on Chrome, or even Android would start emerging for home computing. The home devices like TV, players are already internet enabled. Recently 3D TV launched. Similarly game boxes like Wii are WIFI already enabled.  This internet / WIFI connectivity would enable remote control, remote monitoring, enabling internet content as well as communication to all these devices. However, much unfulfilled home computing would start taking shape in the next few years.

5. Cloud computing would be widely adapted and a lot of acquisitions and consolidation would happen. In addition to Google, AWS, Microsoft, new entries would be from other vendors (who knows Oracle/IBM/HP/Dell). However, most importantly the adaption would move from cloud computing for enterprises to personal cloud computing.

5. Twitter would start monetizing based on ads as well as analytical apis. Its growth will be slowed till Twitter based applications get launched. Twitter itself would face a hostile acquisition challenge.

6. Facebook and LinkedIn would be public. Facebook would be the most successful IPO a long time after Google (and that would start worrying Google). Facebook connect would be widely used for authentications in many other online applications, much beyond Facebook itself.

[Analysis:Carried to 2011] None of them got acquired however they raised a lot of private cash and their shares on pre-ipo market are treaded heavily. Both are preparing to go IPO in this year.

7. Searches: Microsoft would continue to enrich Bing with more acquisitions. Google and Microsoft fight for real-time searches. Image and video search would be enriched.

[Analysis:True] Microsoft is enriching Bing which has demonstrated a very good features and experience that got Google to imitate few features like Screen, local and social searches. However, Bing has not been able to make any significant dent in google’s user base. Google acquired Likes.com

8. Apple: It is already well-known fact that Apple would expand iTunes from music domiance to movies, books. It would be pressured to get out of exclusive binding with ATT.

[Analysis: True] Apple finally got out of exclusive deal with At&T by adding Verizon in its career options.

9.VOIP, Skype: There will be a wide-spread adoption of VOIP. VOIP + Mobile phones would put the  wired telephony on its deathbed. The Skype based applications and video phones would be popular on iTouch, NetBooks etc.

[Analysis: Partially true]

10. Online Profiling and Privacy: Social networking based online profiling applications would raise privacy concerns. Cyber crimes like identity threats, stalking, frauds, etc. based on the online informations would raise privacy concerns and there would be some rumblings in the legislative world.



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